El Paso, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

146
FXUS64 KEPZ 280449
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1049 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 -  Daily thunderstorms become more isolated this weekend. As
    usual, the best chances for storms will be over area
    mountains.

-   Storms will be capable of heavy rain and flooding, especially
    in the Sacramento Mountains, and near recent burn scars.

-   Better rain chances expected for the middle of next week as
    temperatures stay near or below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 952 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

A few showers and storms are lingering late this evening west of
Las Cruces with pockets of heavy rain. This activity is expected
to dissipate by midnight as the atmosphere continues to
stabilize. For this weekend, weak ridging builds over the Four
Corners region, allowing moisture levels to drop to near normal
for late June. PWs fall to about 1" or just below on Saturday,
staying relatively low through Sunday compared to where we were
earlier this week. The best moisture remains over eastern areas as
the plume shifts more to the south and east. Scattered storms
develop in the mountains each afternoon through Sunday, shooting
off outflow boundaries into the lowlands by the evening and
initiating isolated activity. The flash flood threat is low due to
the lower PWs, but the slow storm motion and possible training of
storms could give spots heavy rainfall (1-2") - most likely in
the Sacs, including recent burn scars.

The upper high shifts north on Monday, allowing for a better
fetch of moisture from the east to develop. Rain/storm chances
increase for Monday areawide as PWs begin to climb again. The high
is nudged to the east by an upper low off the CA coast by the
middle of the week with an even better moisture tap forming from
the south and southeast.

Tue-Thu look like a pretty active period in terms of thunderstorm
coverage. There is a low-medium threat of flash flooding around
the middle of the week due to PWs reaching near record levels
again. Global ensembles generally show PWs at 1.3-1.6" next week
for KELP with the Euro and its AI ensemble all in on record
moisture. The GFS ensemble is more mixed. For the last event, the
Euro got on board much sooner than the GFS, so I`m inclined to
lean towards the wetter solution. I would expect to see scattered
to numerous showers and storms each day from Tue-Thu with the
potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially on
recent burn scars. After Thursday, moisture levels begin to
decrease along with storm chances.

Temperatures will be near normal this weekend with the upper high
close by and lower storm chances forecast. Temps drop to
seasonably cool levels as we head into the middle of next week due
to better rain chances and more cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 952 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Showers and storms continue to weaken west of KLRU to start the
period with an outflow boundary heading SE towards KELP. The
outflow could reduce VIS to 5SM or below at KELP before improving.
Other than lingering -RA at KDMN for about an hour, dry
conditions expected for the rest of the night as mid clouds hang
around. Isolated showers and storms redevelop Saturday afternoon
with high enough confidence to mention TS at KDMN but no other
terminal. Outflows and BLDU can be seen again later in the period.
Outside of gusty outflows, prevailing winds will be AOB 6kts
mostly from S-SE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1236 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Rain chances expected each afternoon, but this weekend and early
next week will feature a bit of a downtick in activity as drier air
filters in. Critical min RH values return to the Gila region and
western lowland areas as soon as tomorrow and spread towards the
Rio Grande by Sunday. Locations along and west of the Continental
Divide are still highlighted for critical min RHs Monday but
better rain chances exist Tuesday and onward bringing min RHs
above critical areawide. Better moisture flushes in midweek
allowing for thunderstorms to be very efficient rain producers
which could bring trouble to recently burned areas.

Wind speeds stay below critical thresholds each day with surface
winds generally 5-15 mph each afternoon becoming calm overnight.
Ventilation rates will be fair to very good over the weekend
becoming good to very good Monday and Tuesday then fair to good
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  89  72  95  74 /  20  20  10  10
Sierra Blanca            83  65  86  66 /  50  40  30  20
Las Cruces               87  65  93  67 /  20  10  10  10
Alamogordo               87  65  93  69 /  50  20  30  10
Cloudcroft               65  49  71  51 /  60  20  50  10
Truth or Consequences    89  67  95  69 /  20  20  10  10
Silver City              85  60  90  64 /  30  30  20  10
Deming                   91  66  96  67 /  20  30  10  10
Lordsburg                94  65  96  67 /  30  30  10  10
West El Paso Metro       88  73  93  75 /  20  20  10  10
Dell City                86  67  91  68 /  50  30  20  10
Fort Hancock             89  71  93  72 /  40  40  30  10
Loma Linda               81  65  85  67 /  40  20  10  10
Fabens                   88  70  93  71 /  30  20  10  10
Santa Teresa             88  70  92  71 /  20  20  10  10
White Sands HQ           88  71  93  74 /  40  20  10  10
Jornada Range            87  65  93  67 /  40  20  10  10
Hatch                    91  65  96  67 /  20  20  10  10
Columbus                 91  69  96  71 /  10  20  10  10
Orogrande                84  65  91  68 /  40  20  20  10
Mayhill                  76  54  81  56 /  80  20  50  10
Mescalero                76  53  82  56 /  60  20  40  10
Timberon                 72  51  77  54 /  70  20  40  10
Winston                  83  54  88  56 /  20  30  20  10
Hillsboro                89  62  93  64 /  30  30  20  10
Spaceport                88  63  93  65 /  30  20  10  10
Lake Roberts             87  56  92  58 /  50  30  20  10
Hurley                   87  60  92  63 /  30  30  20  10
Cliff                    94  62  98  64 /  20  20  10  10
Mule Creek               91  59  94  61 /  20  10  10  10
Faywood                  86  62  90  66 /  40  30  20  10
Animas                   93  66  96  68 /  30  30  10  10
Hachita                  90  64  94  66 /  30  30  10  10
Antelope Wells           90  65  93  67 /  40  40  10  10
Cloverdale               86  63  91  66 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...39-Aronson