El Paso, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

024
FXUS64 KEPZ 200512
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1012 PM MST Fri Dec 19 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 932 PM MST Fri Dec 19 2025

 - Dry conditions this week ahead with no rain chances through
   Tuesday.

 - Near-record to record warmth through much of early portion of
   the forecast, with highs 15-20 degrees above normal.

 - Increasing clouds midweek with slight chance of showers
   Gila/Black Range.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 932 PM MST Fri Dec 19 2025

Big bubble of an upper level high in the Pacific will begin to
flatten and elongate Saturday. This will cause the persistent
northwesterly flow aloft to turn more zonal and dry air to
continue intruding. Pressure heights will remain close to the
same levels as they have been for the last several days, leading
to another round of near-record to record warmth across the
lowlands of the Borderland. Meanwhile, an upper low will swing
into the Great Lakes, kicking off a backdoor front down the Great
Plains. This little surface front will lose most of its steam as
it tries to surge westward toward the Borderland, but a couple of
degrees of cooling will pay visit to central and eastern portions
of the CWA.

As zonal flow persists, dry and warm conditions will prevail
early in the work week. The upper high will migrate eastward
toward the Gulf as an upper low barrels down on the PacNW. This
system will tour just beyond the west coast through midweek,
kicking up a slug of subtropical moisture along its eastern
periphery in its travels. The zonal flow will contort to
southwesterly by Wednesday and chances for precip will slowly
encroach upon the westernmost zones that night. Evolution of the
system beyond this point is murky at best, with run-to-run
consistency amongst models continuing to be lackluster. Track is
going to dictate the coverage and intensity of precip but the
Borderland seeing anything widespread is quickly looking to take a
Christmas miracle. Still, a dip south would put a more favorable
target on southern NM and far west TX. Stay tuned...

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 932 PM MST Fri Dec 19 2025

VFR conditions to prevail throughout the TAF period. Gusty wly
winds can be expected most terminals aft 20/18Z, diminishing
shortly aft sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 900 AM MST Fri Dec 19 2025

Abnormal warmth and dry conditions persist through at least
Tuesday. Temperatures will continue to run 15-20 degrees above
average for mid-December. Min RHs will stay 13-20% in the lowlands
and mountain min RHs will be in the upper teens to 25% through
Tuesday. Wind speeds stay light almost every afternoon with 20 ft
wind speeds 5-10 mph. Saturday will be the breeziest day of the
period with speeds 5-15 mph that afternoon. Models are continuing
to hint at some potential for rain chances by Wednesday, but best
chances for rain right now look to be southwest NM and the Gila
region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  78  44  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            72  42  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               73  40  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               72  39  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               52  36  55  37 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    74  42  70  40 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              66  42  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   76  38  75  35 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                70  37  71  36 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       76  45  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                78  34  73  34 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             79  42  77  40 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               68  44  67  44 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   77  40  75  40 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             75  39  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           75  47  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            74  32  71  30 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    79  38  75  36 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 77  41  74  39 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                72  40  70  41 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  66  39  69  40 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                64  37  66  37 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 61  34  63  35 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  69  29  68  28 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                74  43  72  42 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                72  36  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             65  32  68  31 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   69  38  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    72  28  73  27 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               68  30  69  28 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  69  42  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   74  38  74  37 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  74  36  74  36 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           76  39  76  39 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               68  44  71  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...99